<![CDATA[Delphic Alpha: Thematic Portfolios]]>https://delphicalpha.substack.com/s/thematic-portfolioshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ktl!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbee261f-1963-4880-a3c7-78377d10694f_608x608.pngDelphic Alpha: Thematic Portfolioshttps://delphicalpha.substack.com/s/thematic-portfoliosSubstackSun, 12 Jul 2026 19:20:35 GMT<![CDATA[The Quantum Trade: A Systematic Portfolio for the Next NVIDIA]]>https://delphicalpha.substack.com/p/the-quantum-trade-a-systematic-portfoliohttps://delphicalpha.substack.com/p/the-quantum-trade-a-systematic-portfolioFri, 10 Jul 2026 21:45:32 GMT$10,000 in NVIDIA in 2016 is worth $1.5 million today. Most investors missed it. Quantum computing is following the same trajectory, but the stocks are 10x more volatile. I built a diversified portfolio across the entire quantum value chain - the pure-play builders, the big tech funders, and the irreplaceable suppliers. 17 stocks, four sleeves, weekly updates. Here's everything.

Almost nobody held NVIDIA through the whole ride. It crashed 66% in 2022. Most retail investors sold. The ones who held made 150x. The lesson wasn't "buy NVIDIA." The lesson was: the investors who got rich were the ones who could survive being wrong for years and still be there when it worked.

Quantum computing is in the same position today. Google's Willow chip achieved verifiable quantum advantage in December 2024. Governments have committed $40+ billion. Every major tech company has a quantum division. The science is no longer theoretical - it's engineering.

But there's a problem the NVIDIA investors never had.

These Stocks Are Untradeable

When Google announced Willow, Rigetti doubled. D-Wave surged 70%. IonQ hit $82. Then Jensen Huang said useful quantum computers are "15 to 30 years away" and in a single day, Rigetti fell 45%, IonQ fell 39%, D-Wave fell 36%. $8 billion in market cap evaporated because one person said one sentence.

Seven pure-play quantum stocks normalized price chart showing extreme volatility from 2022 to 2026

Look at that chart. Every pure-play quantum stock has experienced a drawdown of at least 68%. QUBT hit -90%. Rigetti hit -96%. Arqit fell 99% from its SPAC peak. These stocks move 3-5x the broader market on any given day.

Maximum drawdowns for all seven pure-play quantum stocks vs NVIDIA's worst

NVIDIA's worst crash was -66% and it had $30 billion in annual revenue to justify holding through it. Quantum stocks have no such floor. Most burn cash. Most trade on narrative. A single conference talk can wipe out months of gains.

Most investors either avoid quantum entirely or buy the pure-plays and sell at the worst possible time. There is a middle path: build a diversified portfolio of companies tied to the quantum computing value chain - the pure-play builders, the big tech companies funding quantum divisions, and the suppliers of the materials and equipment that every quantum computer needs. Spread across the ecosystem so no single company's failure is fatal, and stay positioned for the sector's long-term growth.

I built this portfolio with 17 holdings across four sleeves, backtested it over 4.5 years, and I track it live with weekly updates. The holdings are periodically reviewed as the quantum computing field matures - new companies are added as they IPO, underperformers are removed, and the portfolio evolves as the sector moves from speculative to commercial. Here's everything.

The Quantum Portfolio

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